There are fears that violence would ecalate in Sudan following the upcoming referendum on southern independence.
Amid fears that an upcoming referendum on southern Sudan independences could trigger an escalation of violence, the coalition of European and African economic and political think-tanks published on Thursday a new report saying that a return to civil war in Sudan would cost the country, the region and the international community more than $100bn over 10 years.
Coming less than 50 days ahead of the January 9 referendum, "The Cost of Future Conflict in Sudan" report by Frontier Economics presents fresh analysis on the economic costs of war.
"Apart from $50bn to Sudan itself in lost GDP, neighbours will have to bear $25bn in lost GDP and the international community will have to spend $30bn for peacekeeping and humanitarian aid," the report, co-launched by The Institute for Security Studies, the Society for International Development and the Aegis Trust, said.
The report said war would make the region a risky place for investment, make Sudan's demand for imports drop and stretch neighbors’ resources when refugees pour in and they are forced to spend more money on their militaries.
"This report demonstrates the high cost of conflict. It implies that domestic, regional and international parties should be asking if they are we doing enough to avoid a war that might cost over $100bn and ruin countless lives?'" Matthew Bell of Frontier Economics said.
While the report recognizes the difficulties in measuring the costs of potential future conflict, it provides different scenarios – low, medium, high conflict and peace – along with four different growth paths.
"It is widely acknowledged that a return to war in Sudan could cause immense human suffering. This report should also concentrate the minds of policymakers who are also concerned about the future economic stability of the region," James Smith of Aegis Trust said.
Coming less than 50 days ahead of the January 9 referendum, "The Cost of Future Conflict in Sudan" report by Frontier Economics presents fresh analysis on the economic costs of war.
"Apart from $50bn to Sudan itself in lost GDP, neighbours will have to bear $25bn in lost GDP and the international community will have to spend $30bn for peacekeeping and humanitarian aid," the report, co-launched by The Institute for Security Studies, the Society for International Development and the Aegis Trust, said.
The report said war would make the region a risky place for investment, make Sudan's demand for imports drop and stretch neighbors’ resources when refugees pour in and they are forced to spend more money on their militaries.
"This report demonstrates the high cost of conflict. It implies that domestic, regional and international parties should be asking if they are we doing enough to avoid a war that might cost over $100bn and ruin countless lives?'" Matthew Bell of Frontier Economics said.
While the report recognizes the difficulties in measuring the costs of potential future conflict, it provides different scenarios – low, medium, high conflict and peace – along with four different growth paths.
"It is widely acknowledged that a return to war in Sudan could cause immense human suffering. This report should also concentrate the minds of policymakers who are also concerned about the future economic stability of the region," James Smith of Aegis Trust said.
