Russia is keen on reading – in advance - western thoughts, even before it become true.
Somaya Ali
Russia is keen on reading – in advance - western thoughts, even before it become true. However, the Yugoslavian experience is inapplicable to the situation in Syria, that’s what Moscow has confirmed.
In further details, foreign sides backing the Syrian opposition sought to witness a similar situation in Syria to that happened in Yugoslavia in 1998 after Bosnia and Srebrenica massacres when the NATO militarily intervened and transgressed the Security Council. To achieve this goal, the previously mentioned foreign sides are arming the Syrian opposition. History repeats itself in Syria. At a once, the universal conscience awakened in front of the massacres in Al-Houla and Al-Qubeir, Annan announced his failure, and West urged military option in order to save people in Syria from the brutal Assad. Coincidence another once happens.
However, high-level meetings produced a different scene. In both the meetings of Russian President Vladimir Putin with the French President Francois Hollande, and the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov with his counterpart Hillary Clinton, Moscow was keen on viewing the Syrian crisis from another point. For this reason, Russia, the expert in Damascus's military capabilities for being the number one importer of arms to Syria, used the capabilities of Syrian army as evidence to proof its point of view. In addition, Western sides well-know that Washington's participation is necessary in case the military choice was adopted, but the U.S. won't do that before the presidential elections in November.
As a conclusion, Russia is either holding the reins or is an unable part to make international decisions regarding Syria without referring to the international community. But what would happen if Annan's six point plan was aborted knowing that Russia is its official sponsor? Could it float its new proposal to hold an international conference on the situation in Syria, in which it outweighs Annan's mission that lost the support of the other part who is still betting on the downfall of President Bashar Assad and his regime?
Washington doesn't bless Annan's Plan... Regime chooses military settlement because time will cause more exhaustion
With respect to the reasons behind the failure of Annan's mission, International Relations Professor in the University of Damascus, Mr. Bassam Abu Abdallah considers that Annan's plan was made in Russia and China since the very beginning of its foundation. Even the U.S. that publicly supported the plan, it did that for wasting time in parallel with continuing training the troops that are fighting against the regime and finding other exits to control the situation in the country. As for today, Washington and its allies weren't able to cause the infringement they sought inside Syria. They aimed at changing the regime in Syria to support their interests in the light of all the regional changes like what happened in Egypt and the American withdrawal from Iraq. Therefore, American and Western forces consider the political solution deadly.
In a call with Al-Manar website, Mr. Abu Abdallah stated that the regime is about to start a rapid and inclusive military settlement. He also asserted that the plan of the Arab international envoy's mission to Syria is done. "Syrian leadership offered Annan a chance, but didn't see any tangible result," he mentioned. "In addition, the observers' presence in Syria helped covering the armed terrorist groups that extremely increased its operations. Syrian leadership concluded that Mr. Annan is unable to change this reality," said Mr. Abu Abdallah. Not to mention, "Syrian leadership is aware that foreign forces want to abort Annan's plan that couldn't be applied by one side at its own."
As for the settlement operation, the professor noted that "Settlement publicized by the Syrian government started in many cities in Syria on Thursday and Friday. The "zero hour" was defeated; it represented targeting armed groups in several areas inside Damascus. Regular troops slapped those groups and chased their members. And today, they are working on military settlement in Al-Hiffa, Al-Rastan, and Homs." In his opinion, "Army was able to enter some of those areas."
Abu Abdallah further explained: "There's no doubt that the rapid military settlement is bloody and expensive, yet it is impossible to stay ever-watching the forces that prefer exhausting the regime instead of starting negotiations with it. For this reason, decisive battles will strike the opposite sides; especially those supported by the U.S. and its tools, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, and will last for several coming weeks. It is noteworthy that controlling borders operation will accompany the settlement, and will particularly take place North Lebanon and off the Syrian-Turkish borders."
Moscow Owns the Key of this Period
Concerning the after-failure period of the six point plan, the International Relations professor indicated that: "Moscow is trying to redesign Annan's plan. The U.S. delegation has visited Russia, and Moscow is seeking to succeed in its trial through Lavrov's visit to Tehran and establishing an international communication group. Therefore, what is important today is to found an international conference to solve the situation in Syria, every part must attend this conference which will be based on democratic basis and not according to Washington's and Qatar's basis that consider the situation cannot be solved unless Mr. Assad is out of power." Abu Abdallah added that "Western countries are still concerned with a transitional period, but they are aware that the Syrian army represents a strong institution. Therefore, the military option was excluded. As for progressively sending jihadists, Stratford Institution, closely tied to the CIA, conducted a study that considers Saudi Arabia stupid for sending more jihadists to Syria. Washington notes that Saudi Arabia cannot control those people it is sending to Syria."
"Russians have every key solution, and China comes after. The situation on the Syrian ground is improving which will lead to strengthening the regime in case dialogue was held. Syria didn't close any possible way to meet the opposition, and this is good for the latter. Moreover, Mr. Assad asserted in his last speech that any political solution must be after a popular referendum. However, the military exit is so expensive and won't achieve any of the desired solutions. Armament didn't topple the regime yet, and the Russian veto will be on hold," the man added.
The professor excluded the outbreak of a long-lasting civil war in Syria that would replace a foreign military intervention in the country. His opinion is due to the "Difference between the outbreak of civil war, and the desire of certain countries to witness this war. I think that no civil war have ever happened in the history of Syria, but some local forces as nihilists and Wahhabis are exerting great efforts to make it happen. One side is killing and slaughtering according to sects and religions, but Syrian people have no intent to start such war in their country," said Mr. Abu Abdallah.
